MILWAUKEE – March 22, 2025 – Brendon D. Miller
The No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (23-11) will take on the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (22-12) in the second round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament on Sunday, March 23, 2025, at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Tip-off is set for 5:15 p.m. ET (4:15 p.m. CT) and will be broadcast on CBS. This Midwest Regional matchup pits two high-powered offenses against each other, with a trip to the Sweet 16 in Indianapolis on the line.
How They Got Here
Kentucky advanced with a convincing 76-57 win over No. 14 Troy on Friday. The CATS, in their first tournament under head coach Mark Pope, showcased their depth and balance. Otega Oweh led with 20 points, eight rebounds, and six assists, while Koby Brea and Andrew Carr each added 13 points, with Brea hitting three of six from beyond the arc. Kentucky shot 47.5% from the field and assisted on 23 of 28 made baskets, pulling away with a 16-0 second-half run to extinguish Troy’s upset hopes.
Illinois punched their ticket with an 86-73 victory over No. 11 Xavier. The Illini overcame a sloppy first half with 14 turnovers by erupting in the second, fueled by a barrage of three-pointers (12 of 30 for the game) and perfect 18-for-18 free-throw shooting. Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley each scored 19 points, with Jake Davis adding 15 off the bench. Illinois shot nearly 50% from the field and capitalized on their size and speed to pull away late.
Key Matchup Factors
- Offensive Firepower vs. Defensive Struggles: Both teams rank among the top 10 nationally in scoring offense—Kentucky at 85.0 points per game (sixth) and Illinois averaging similarly high outputs—but lag defensively, with neither cracking the top 250 in points allowed. Kentucky’s balanced attack features six double-digit scorers (despite losing Jaxson Robinson for the season), led by Oweh and Lamont Butler’s playmaking (4.3 assists per game). Illinois relies on its outside shooting, going 16-3 when hitting 10+ threes and 12-0 with 11+, but struggles when shots aren’t falling (0-8 under 40% field goal percentage).
- Three-Point Battle: Kentucky shoots 37.4% from deep and defends the arc well (30.6% allowed), which could spell trouble for Illinois, who have allowed 9+ threes in each of their last three games. The Illini’s 31.1% three-point shooting improved to 40% against Xavier, but consistency remains a question. The team that shoots better from the field—Kentucky needs around 44%, Illinois 44% or higher—tends to win their high-octane games.
- Turnovers and Pace: Illinois’ 14 turnovers against Xavier highlight a potential weakness Kentucky could exploit, though the Wildcats aren’t prolific at forcing them. Kentucky’s cohesive, pass-heavy offense (17.0 assists per game, 16th nationally) thrives in transition, while Illinois prefers a fast pace but can unravel with sloppy play.
- Injuries and Intangibles: Kentucky’s Lamont Butler, despite a lingering shoulder issue, is expected to play, bolstering their guard play. Illinois has dealt with inconsistency all season but looked sharp when clicking against Xavier. The Illini’s experience in close games could keep this tight, while Kentucky’s ability to win nail-biters under Pope adds intrigue.
The Outlook
This game shapes up as a potential shootout with all-time-classic potential. Kentucky’s depth, defensive rebounding, and three-point defense give them a slight edge, but Illinois’ size, NBA-caliber talent, and hot shooting could flip the script. Expect a close contest with multiple lead changes, likely decided in the final minutes. Early betting lines list Illinois as a slim 1.5-point favorite with a total of 169.5-170.5 points, reflecting the anticipated high scoring. Projections like KenPom’s 85-84 Kentucky win underscore the razor-thin margin.
The winner advances to face either No. 2 Tennessee or No. 7 UCLA in the Sweet 16, with Kentucky seeking their first second-weekend appearance since 2019 and Illinois aiming to build on their momentum. This one could come down to the last shot.
